Tehran, IRNA – The National Interest, an American bimonthly international relations magazine, has pointed to the consequent failures of predictions by the United States’ CIA and Israeli Mossad agencies on developments in Iran.
In an article titled “Don’t Trust the Israeli and U.S. Intelligence Communities on Iran,” the National Interest underlined that the failures have their roots in extreme reliance on certain inaccurate intelligence sources.
The American and Israeli assessments of realities in Iran indicate “many failures” in foreseeing the political situation in the country, the magazine reported.
They (the CIA, Mossad) do not know the realities on the ground as they made big mistakes when it came to Iran especially prior to the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, it argued.
The report also recalled remarks made by the then US president Jimmy Carter as saying, “Iran is not in a revolutionary or even a ‘pre-revolutionary’ situation,” while six months later, on February 11, 1979, the Shah’s government collapsed.
According to the magazine, the then CIA chief later confessed the agency failed to predict Iran’s circumstances because it “didn’t expect a 78-year-old who was not in the country for 14 years to tie the forces so easily.”
Some analysts are of the opinion that the CIA failed to predict the victory of the 1979 revolution, because the agency relied upon reports that came out from the Shah regime’s intelligence agency (SAVAK).
Despite the fact that SAVAK and Mossad “developed an extensive and exceptional intelligence relationship,” the Israeli intelligence community, similar to their American counterparts, failed to predict political change in Iran.
The failures come from intelligence experts’ paradigms and these assessments might create a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, which is neither their intent nor in the interest of the United States or Israel, the report concluded.
Source: Islamic Republic News Agency – IRNA
