Trump and miscalculation about Iran
Tehran, Some media and analysts say the absence of a clear strategy in the area of foreign policy of the White House has caused US President Donald Trump to face calculational errors in Iran.
The possibility of the confrontation between Tehran and Washington has reached its highest level since the signing of 2015 nuclear deal known as JCPOA. In the eyes of some analysts, the absence of a specific and precise strategy in the US foreign policy has caused sporadic, contradictory, and even destructive measures to raise a ordinary tension, to a level that as the present conditions, even the military threat and the threat of war were raised.
In the recent year, the US illegal withdrawal from Iran's nuclear agreement and P5 + 1 was the beginning of the crisis. This American measure was so illogical that since then it has been criticized by other countries and even the European allies of the White House.
The gradual increase in the pressure of unilateral sanctions on Iran and other negligence of the signatories, particularly the European Union, has gradually brought developments to the stage that led Iran to reduce its nuclear commitments, setting a 60day deadline for European countries.
The Islamic Republic of Iran gave European countries two months to implement obligations based on their efforts to normalize economic ties to Tehran, otherwise Tehran would launch and implement the unthinkable measures in the field of nuclear activities.
In the United States, one of the main criticisms of Donald Trump is his approach to international issues and his cabinet's foreign policy. The remarkable thing is that all the successes that Trump is boasting about two and a half years of his presidency is limited to domestic areas and only the economy and employment, and in almost all international issues, none of the White House's goals has not been realized.
Perhaps some analysts is considering the talks with the North Korean leader and his direct negotiation with the United States as the diplomatic success of the president of the United States, but there are several reasons to prove the falsehood. Firstly, over the course of nearly a year, these efforts have not achieved any gains for both sides, and despite the ongoing cessation of North Korean missile and nuclear activities, the unproductive nature of the interaction has changed the Pyongyang's look. The country is now reopening its previous activities and several recent Pyongyang missile tests are indicative of this reality.
The second point is that the direct meeting between the US and North Korean officials is not new, and over the past two decades, this has happened several times, and almost all of them, it was Washington that did not fulfill its commitments and made futile the efforts.
As many analysts believe, contrary to Barack Obama's presidency, Trump does not pursue a specific strategy in almost any political area. In fact, he only expects countries to surrender to Washington's demand for political and economic pressures or military threats. This miscalculation has led to political and diplomatic confusion, which is evident in the weak ties between Washington and its longstanding allies.
We witness that Trump, in bilateral meetings or formal international meetings, is not pursuing a behavior or favorable policy in line with international norms. In this regard, the National Interest website has written that the policies of Trump in the field of foreign policy, especially on Iran, do not pursue a comprehensive vision and even regional strategy.
From the experts' point of view, one of the most grave criticisms of the US diplomacy during the Trump era, especially in Iran, was the lack of a longterm policy. Still, the White House does not know its kind of engagement with Iran, and is stranded between a military adventure and negotiation.
It seems that, even in the recent period when Trump exerts the most pressure on Iran, he is unaware of his next steps. The United States puts Iran's oil customers at risk of severe sanctions, and in other areas of finance, industry, and commerce, many international norms are ignored for maximum pressure on Iran; the White House, at the same time, threatens military threats and excessive advertising on deployment of its aircraft carrier to the region.
Meanwhile, the US government has shown that all these costs for the United States and the countries of the world are only for threatening Iran. The State Department clearly says it does not pursue a war with Iran, and on the other hand, it is waiting for Iran's phone call.
According to NBC, Washington seems to have underestimated Tehran's resilience and has become contradictory. The US Secretary of State's Mike Pompeo's initial military threats now seem to be empty.
On the other hand, the president of the United States is confident that, as he looks at the upcoming elections in the United States, his trademark action on North Korea made fruit, he can be successful with the maximum pressure on engagement with Tehran.
According to the network's analysis, Trump's close advisors have also miscalculated the degree of flexibility and resolve in Iran because Iran is not North Korea and the power structure is different.
On the other hand, in the United States there are different voices in opposition to Trump. In addition to serious Congressional opposition to the launch of the war, the Foreign Relations and Arm Committee now raise concerns that Trump's policies may change the course of change with Iran without the President either considers or might want to.
Source: Islamic Republic News Agency IRNA