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Will Trump be a one-term president?

Tehran, US President Donald Trump currently faces three mega-challenges that could potentially unseat him or pose to his presidency the risk of being drowned in an ocean of domestic and international troubles: His 'collusion' with Russia, a quasi-coup in the White House and his failure to reach his desired nuclear deal with Iran.

Special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election is expected to wrap up in the near future. Trump's legitimacy would be undermined if it is confirmed that his election campaign colluded with Russians or he evaded election financing laws.

Therefore, to punish Trump, the most favorable options for the US establishment would be to impeach the president and, ultimately, remove him from office.

But anti-Trump forces, especially Democrats are not the dominant party in Congress so as to trigger an impeachment process.

Thus, a preferable alternative would be to pass the buck to the 'Quiet Resistance' inside the administration.

A New York Times Op-ed article written by an unnamed 'senior official' from within the Trump administration, published on Wednesday, offered a full picture of the 'erratic' administration. As the article claimed, a cluster of 'adults in the room' has teamed up against Trump's 'inclinations' to correct his mindset.

Then comes the third challenge that can render the 'Make America Great Again' slogan meaningless. Weakened domestically by Mueller and the resistance movement, Trump is also exposed to international dangers he has created by withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. Former US president Jimmy Carter's fate offers a cautionary tale to Trump.

Amidst a hostage crisis, when 52 US citizens were held captive for 444 days in Iran, in November 1979, Carter signed an executive order freezing all assets of the Iranian government in the US. His pressure campaign on Iran to free the hostages backfired and became a 'symbol of American impotence' as American-Canadian political commentator David Frum put it in his book, 'How We Got Here: The 70's'. A year later, on November 4, 1980, Carter lost election to a second term.

Trump's tarnished legitimacy coupled with Iran's reluctance to negotiate with Washington could sound the death knell for the US president. Unless he changes his approaches, these are the main conditions that may make him a one-term president.

The November mid-term elections would definitely be a litmus test for a president whose tenure has, so far, been all about bickering with the media, bullying adversaries, and poking a finger in the eyes of traditional US allies across the world.

Former US president Barack Obama broke his silence to give a hand to fellow Democrats and deal Trump and Republicans the first election blow, to retake the majority in the both houses of Congress.

Meanwhile, the trans-Atlantic allies are considering parting ways with Trump to gain independence or, at least, autonomy from Washington in certain international issues, including the Iran nuclear deal.

The US presidential election in 2020, in which the economy would apparently be a decisive factor, will be the final stage where Washington's trade wars and failed policies would determine the fate of the Trump administration.

Apple warned that the new tariffs on China will take a toll on the company's products produced there. Apple, however, is not alone. The global economy can also suffer from Trump's policies. Hence, international financial sectors as well as trade partners, such as the EU and China, may opt to end the days of sitting on the fence and campaign against Trump, voting him down.

Source: Iran Daily


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