Beijing: As tensions between Washington and Tehran remain high, China's role is under growing scrutiny. How far would Beijing go to support Iran - and where are the limits if conflict broke out with the US? China has emerged as a key player in Iran's escalating confrontation with the United States, as mass protests and economic collapse strain the Islamic Republic from within.
According to Deutsche Welle, China has been one of Iran's most important economic and diplomatic partners, providing a crucial outlet as Tehran has faced sweeping US sanctions and remained on the Financial Action Task Force's blacklist. These restrictions have severely limited Iran's access to the global financial system and made it dependent on China for trade and political support. The relationship has taken on a sharper security dimension ever since Iran's 12-day war with Israel in June 2025, as Iran and China reportedly expanded security cooperation agreements.
Hamidreza Azizi, a Middle East security analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Berlin, cautions against overestimating Beijing's commitment to defending the Iranian government. He stated that China's involvement in Iran and the wider region remains largely pragmatic. "China did not emerge as a forceful defender of Iran after the 12-day war with Israel, and it is unlikely to do so in the event of a possible US military intervention," Azizi told DW.
China's support to other regional partners, such as Pakistan during the 2025 clashes over Kashmir, has been more robust. Beijing offered Pakistan tangible military assistance, according to sources including Indian military officials. No comparable level of support has been extended to Iran, Azizi noted.
Iran's relationship with China is primarily shaped by its confrontation with Washington. While US sanctions have pushed Iran closer to China, they have also constrained Chinese investment and limited China's ability to expand its economic footprint in Iran. "For now, Beijing appears more focused on opposing unilateral US action than on ensuring the survival of the Iranian regime itself," Azizi said. Years of recurring unrest and widespread corruption in Iran have reinforced perceptions in China that the country under the current leadership represents a high-risk environment for investment.
The gap between China's trade with Iran and its trade with other Gulf countries is significant. In 2024, China's total trade with the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries reached roughly $257 billion, while its bilateral trade with Iran was less than $14 billion, according to a report by the London-based think tank Asia House and Chinese government data. Azizi concluded that while China wants regional stability to protect its broad economic and energy interests, it is unlikely to defend the Iranian government itself.