Tehran: Prominent Arab analyst, Abdel Bari Atwan, asserts that the renewed military campaign launched by US President Donald Trump against Iran has backfired, arguing that Iran's swift response has trapped the United States in a major strategic quagmire.
According to Islamic Republic News Agency, Atwan published an article on the Rai Al Youm website stating that Trump initiated the military campaign against Iran despite clear opposition from the US military establishment. The military objected to plans aimed at taking control of the Strait of Hormuz and international shipping through this strategic waterway.
Atwan highlighted that senior military officials insisted on adherence to the Pentagon's new war doctrine. This doctrine emphasizes avoiding military confrontation whenever possible and, if unavoidable, ensuring it remains short, swift, and limited in both human and material losses.
He further noted that many senior US military commanders opposed Trump's decisions, with more than 25 generals reportedly resigning or being dismissed due to their opposition. Despite these objections, Trump opted for military action, violating a Pakistan-brokered memorandum of understanding that called for a cessation of hostilities. Atwan argued that the US military has walked into what he described as a carefully prepared Iranian trap: a prolonged regional war of attrition.
The article also pointed out two key developments indicating the US military's failure to gain the upper hand. The Pentagon announced that 427 US troops were wounded in the past 10 days. Additionally, two oil tankers were destroyed after striking naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and four other tankers were intercepted attempting to transit the unofficial southern shipping lane without Iranian authorization, as announced by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).
Atwan argued that these incidents support Iran's assertion that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, disrupting shipping and contradicting President Trump's statements about the passage of oil.
He acknowledged that the US military struck several Iranian civilian infrastructure facilities. However, he contended that Iran responded swiftly by targeting US bases along the Persian Gulf's western coast, focusing on electricity and desalination facilities, and expanding its military targets to include Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Atwan observed that Trump's demeanor has shifted, with his confidence replaced by deep frustration, reflecting the challenges faced in the conflict.
Concluding his analysis, Atwan stated that the United States has lost every war it has fought in the Middle East, from Iraq to Afghanistan, and suggested that Iran would be no exception. He emphasized that Iran, unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, possesses the region's largest and most powerful military, manufactures advanced weapons domestically, and does not rely on foreign arms imports.