Tehran: The ongoing Israeli military operations against Iran have intensified discussions and speculation about the potential for a regime change in Tehran. Historically, attempts at enforced regime change in the region have led to severe and often disastrous consequences.
According to Deutsche Welle, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently suggested in an interview with Fox News that the current Israeli operations could potentially lead to a regime change in Iran. Netanyahu described Iran's government as "very weak," implying that such a change could be a natural outcome of the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has provided conflicting messages regarding the situation, stating on Truth Social that although the location of Iran's Supreme Leader is known, the US has no immediate plans to target him.
The concept of regime change, especially when imposed from the outside, remains a controversial subject. Eckart Woertz, head of the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), warned that achieving regime change through external pressure is highly unlikely and could lead to unforeseen challenges. Woertz emphasized the risks associated with foreign-imposed regime changes, which often result in power vacuums, violence, and long-term instability, as evidenced by past experiences in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.
The situation in Afghanistan serves as a cautionary tale. Following the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, a Western military alliance led by the US toppled the Taliban regime. Despite initial successes, disagreements within the alliance and persistent conflict led to a precarious security situation that lasted for two decades. The eventual withdrawal of US and allied forces in 2021 allowed the Taliban to regain power, undoing years of progress and leaving the country in a state of poverty and isolation.
In Iraq, the US-led coalition's decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein in 2003 without a UN mandate led to a prolonged period of instability and violence. The transitional government installed by the US faced criticism for mismanagement, and existing sectarian tensions erupted into near civil war conditions. Although violence has decreased in recent years, Iraq remains a country undergoing significant changes, and the long-term impacts of the intervention are still unfolding.
Libya's experience with regime change also highlights the complex aftermath of such interventions. The 2011 civil war, supported by NATO intervention, led to the ousting and death of Muammar Gaddafi. However, Libya has since struggled with internal conflict and a fragmented government, with rival factions vying for control and a deteriorating human rights situation.
In light of these historical examples, Woertz expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of a regime change in Iran without substantial internal or external support. He noted that successful regime changes, such as the one in Germany post-World War II, required ground invasions and significant local backing-conditions that are not currently present in Iran.