Washington: Fresh US strikes on Iran, Tehran's renewed attacks on American bases in the Persian Gulf, and President Donald Trump's announcement that Washington would reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian shipping have pushed the conflict into a new and uncertain phase.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, despite the intensifying military exchanges, Jonathan Schroden, chief research officer at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and a leading US expert on irregular warfare, states that the current violence resembles the turbulent path many wars take before reaching a negotiated settlement. Schroden notes that the US and Iran have a memorandum of understanding outlining terms for continued dialogue, but historical patterns show that cease-fires often break down multiple times before any lasting peace is achieved.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point in the crisis, with significant implications for global shipping and economic conditions. Schroden explains that the slowing of commercial shipping through the strait exacerbates economic challenges worldwide, affecting food prices, agricultural supply chains, and fuel costs. The evolving situation also challenges the long-held international principle of freedom of navigation, as Iran claims control over the strait and the US positions itself as a transit guarantor.
President Trump's assertion that the US will serve as the "guardian" of the Strait of Hormuz while reinstating a blockade of Iranian ports introduces complex operational challenges for the US Navy. Schroden highlights that maintaining a blockade and ensuring safe passage through the strait demands significant naval resources and poses increasing risks over time, particularly given the variety of threats from Iran's sea mines, attack craft, missiles, and drones.
The blockade, which applies to all vessels with exceptions for humanitarian shipments following inspections, presents difficulties in distinguishing legitimate commercial traffic from sanctions evasion or military activity. Schroden points out that the US Navy relies on intelligence and various analyses to identify ships of interest, making blockade enforcement a resource-intensive operation.
With Iran asserting the Strait of Hormuz as its territory, shipping companies face tough decisions on whether to pay fees to Iran, use routes through Oman's waters, or wait for a resolution. The situation complicates the operating environment for naval forces and commercial shipping, as traditional shipping channels are perceived as mined, presenting significant risks to transit.
Despite repeated crises in the strait over the years, today's battlefield incorporates advanced technologies like drones, unmanned maritime systems, and precision missiles. While the Iranian Navy's conventional capabilities have diminished, Iran continues to leverage asymmetric warfare tactics, maintaining substantial capabilities for its territorial defense strategy. Schroden suggests that the conflict is increasingly characterized by insurgent-like strategies, where Iran aims to win by simply not losing.
In conclusion, Schroden sees the conflict as a potential testing ground for new technologies, particularly in maritime warfare, where unmanned systems may play a larger role. The US military uses this conflict to gain insights from employing advanced technologies, which could inform future strategies in similar scenarios.