Washington: Military operations between the US and Iran have renewed attention on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade usually passes. Despite a significant US military presence, shipping companies remain reluctant to transit the strait, highlighting a reality that extends beyond naval power: the greatest challenge may be restoring confidence among commercial operators.

According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, RFE/RL spoke with naval strategist and maritime security analyst Joshua Tallis, a research program director at the Center for Naval Analyses, about the evolving military balance, Iran's asymmetric capabilities, freedom of navigation, diplomacy, and what success would actually look like in the Strait of Hormuz. Tallis emphasized that the current security environment in the strait remains uncertain, and the challenge lies not only in controlling the waterway but also in restoring the confidence of commercial operators.

Tallis noted that there are alternative routes for vessels transiting the strait: one through Omani territorial waters and another through Iranian waters, where Iran reportedly imposes a tax or toll. The military challenge is not limited to maritime threats but also involves defending against airborne threats like drones and missiles.

While military dimensions are crucial, market forces and elevated war-risk insurance premiums continue to affect shipping decisions. Shipowners are concerned about the potential for vessels to become trapped if hostilities escalate, and restoring commercial confidence may take significant time as seen in other regions like the Red Sea.

Tallis also highlighted Iran's use of asymmetric capabilities, such as mines, drones, and missiles, which remain effective despite the degradation of its conventional navy. These systems are inexpensive and can be deployed easily, posing a continuous challenge for defenders.

Success in ensuring freedom of navigation involves more than reopening the strait; it requires normal traffic volumes without coercion or taxation, as per international law. Tallis suggested that a combination of military and diplomatic efforts would be necessary to achieve this goal.

Tallis pointed out that maritime security could serve as a confidence-building measure in potential negotiations, benefiting both the global economy and Iran's own oil exports. The unique challenges of the Strait of Hormuz, including the lack of alternative routes and the dispersed ownership of oil and gas shipping, could lead to some shipowners accepting higher risks sooner than others.