Moscow: Hours after the US launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites early Sunday morning, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that he would hold serious consultations with key ally Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Monday. “In this new dangerous situation … our consultations with Russia can certainly be of great importance,” Russian state media reported Araghchi as saying after landing in Moscow on Sunday night.

According to France24.com, as the two men met face to face, Putin condemned the “absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran” from the US and stated that Russia was “making efforts to provide assistance to the Iranian people.” The involvement of the United States in a prolonged conflict could also have a material impact on Ukraine’s future defense capabilities. US President Donald Trump has not clarified whether he intends to continue attacks on Iran. However, supporting Israel in the long term may require the US to provide Israel with missiles, air defense, and interceptors, according to Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group. This could result in these resources not being allocated to Ukraine, which aligns with Russia’s interests.

There are also moral implications for the US joining an attack on Iran under the pretext of a pre-emptive act of self-defense, a justification that Western leaders have criticized Putin for using during the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the longer term, US involvement in another Middle Eastern conflict could expedite what President Putin has been predicting as America’s decline, according to Kadri Liik, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a Russia expert.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, suggested on social media that Iranian nuclear retaliation against the US, backed by Russia, could be a possibility. However, Iran has supported Russia’s war in Ukraine by providing drones and other military equipment, yet the Kremlin has not offered military help to Iran despite a strategic partnership agreement signed earlier.

While Russia’s military resources are concentrated in Ukraine, Putin appears to have little interest in engaging directly in the Israel-Iran conflict and has positioned himself as an informal peace broker, though rejecting the role of an official mediator. “We are simply suggesting ideas … if they turn out to be attractive to both sides, we will only be happy,” Putin stated during an economic forum in Saint Petersburg.

Realistically, Russia holds limited influence over the outcomes in Israel or Iran. Russia lacks the strength to shape the emerging order in the Middle East and may not be best positioned to benefit from it, according to Liik. However, Putin is tactical and may try to extract gains from the situation, Ignatov noted. A potential scenario for Russia involves offering limited military defense to Iran in exchange for Tehran’s commitment to avoid striking US bases nearby, thereby increasing Iran’s reliance on Russia while mitigating the risk of escalation with the US.

This approach exemplifies what Liik describes as Putin’s policy of performative diplomacy towards the United States, allowing Russia to appear engaged in diplomatic processes while pursuing its objectives in Ukraine without making concessions.