Tehran: The longer Israel’s attack on Iran continues, the greater the speculation about the possibility of overthrowing the government in Tehran. Historically, regime change has had disastrous consequences in the region, raising concerns about potential instability.

According to Deutsche Welle, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly indicated to US broadcaster Fox News that regime change in Iran “could certainly be the result” of Israel’s operation, suggesting that Tehran’s government is “very weak.” Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals, claiming on his social network, Truth Social, that the US knows the location of Iran’s Supreme Leader but has no immediate plans to target him.

Foreign-imposed regime change is controversial, often leading to power vacuums and instability, with newly installed governments facing significant challenges. Afghanistan is a prime example, where the Taliban was ousted post-9/11, only to regain power after a costly and prolonged conflict.

The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, based on false claims about weapons of mass destruction, further illustrates the pitfalls of regime change. Although violence has decreased over time, Iraq remains in a state of transition.

Libya’s attempt at regime change during the Arab Spring resulted in years of conflict and a fragmented state, with rival factions vying for control since 2022.

Middle East expert Eckhart Woertz argues that a ground invasion would likely be necessary to force a change of government in Iran, as a strong internal rebel movement is absent. He cautions that regime change has never been achieved through aerial bombardment alone, implying that Iran may not be an exception.

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