Washington: President Trump has left the G7 summit in Canada earlier than expected, citing "big stuff" awaiting him in Washington. This departure has fueled speculation about his next moves concerning the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.
According to BBC, Trump's comments on the Israel-Iran conflict have been inconsistent, swinging from strong support for Israeli strikes to distancing himself from them. This ambiguity has added to the uncertainty as the conflict intensifies. The White House attributed his early departure to developments in the Middle East, though Trump later clarified on Truth Social that it was unrelated to a ceasefire.
As Israeli missiles targeted Tehran, Trump threatened Iran with "even more brutal" attacks via his Israeli ally armed with American bombs. While Trump has expressed a preference for a deal between the US and Iran to prevent the latter from obtaining a nuclear weapon, his stance has wavered between advocating force and pursuing diplomacy.
Supporters of Trump's unpredictability liken his approach to the "madman" theory of foreign relations, a strategy that aims to coerce adversaries through deliberate uncertainty. Trump’s advisers and supporters who advocate for "maximum pressure" argue that threats will eventually compel Iran to negotiate, despite the country having previously signed a nuclear deal in 2015, which Trump later abandoned.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has pressured Trump to favor military action over diplomacy. As the conflict escalates, pressure mounts on Trump from hawkish Republicans in Congress who have long advocated for regime change in Iran. Trump may view this as an opportunity to push Iran into negotiations with a weakened position, despite ongoing talks with Iran set to resume with Trump's envoy in Oman.
Trump has reiterated that the US is not involved in Israel's attacks, but escalation poses significant risks. American forces are already aiding Israel's defenses, and some of Trump's advisers caution against actions that could intensify Israeli attacks, especially as some Iranian missiles have breached defenses.
Domestically, Trump's decision-making is influenced by his support base. While many Republicans back Israel, voices within Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement question the US's involvement in a Middle Eastern conflict, citing Trump's "America First" policy. Pro-Trump figures like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene have criticized US support for Israel's actions, adding pressure on Trump to distance the US from the conflict.
The MAGA debate coincided with Trump joining Russia's President Putin in calling for an end to the war, urging Iran and Israel to make a deal. He asserted that the US had no involvement in the attacks on Iran. The potential for American casualties could amplify the isolationist argument within MAGA, pressing Trump to urge Netanyahu to conclude the offensive swiftly.