Abu dhabi: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is navigating a complex diplomatic path by attempting to ease tensions with Iran while simultaneously deepening military ties with the United States and Israel. This strategic approach is aimed at safeguarding the UAE's economic and security interests amid escalating regional tensions.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, UAE President Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan has assigned three of his brothers to manage diplomatic communications with Iran. Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan are leading these efforts to reduce hostilities.
The diplomatic initiative has been marked by recent communications between Mansour bin Zayed and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, as well as between Abdullah bin Zayed and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. These interactions are part of the UAE's response to a fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States, which led to a memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington on June 12.
The resurgence of tensions in recent weeks has put the UAE's strategy to the test. Iran's missile and drone attacks against Gulf states, including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have pressured the UAE to avoid direct military conflict with Tehran. This represents a shift from earlier phases of the conflict, during which the UAE was a primary target of Iranian attacks, experiencing nearly 3,000 strikes according to the UAE's Foreign Ministry.
The UAE's Iranian community has also felt the impact, with around 20,000 residency permits suspended for Iranians outside the country during the conflict. Reports suggest some permits are being reactivated, although many are still pending. Tourist visas for Iranians remain unavailable, and no new residency applications are being processed, though renewals for expiring permits continue.
Economic considerations are a driving force behind the UAE's efforts to maintain ties with Iran. In particular, Dubai, which hosts a large Iranian population, views Iran's consumer market as crucial for trade and re-export activities. A Dubai official emphasized the importance of these economic ties in restoring normal relations. An Emirati businessman indicated that while trade with Iran could be halted, replacing certain goods would be challenging.
The conflict has contributed to inflation in the UAE, prompting government interventions to control price hikes. An Iranian businessman in Dubai noted that Iranian goods still reach the UAE despite increased costs due to the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the first phase of the conflict, the UAE claims to have intercepted most of the approximately 3,000 Iranian missile and drone attacks it faced. This has led Abu Dhabi to adopt a more confrontational stance towards Tehran, with reports of UAE involvement in some attacks on Iran.
The Financial Times described the UAE's approach as a calculated risk: cautiously reopening diplomatic and economic channels with Iran while enhancing its military relationship with Israel and the United States. This strategy reflects the UAE's challenge of balancing Western security partnerships with the necessity of maintaining relations with its influential neighbor across the Gulf.