Tehran: President Donald Trump has labeled the recent US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as a significant success, but security experts believe that Tehran's atomic energy infrastructure remains largely intact. This development marks a major escalation in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, raising concerns about a potential broader regional war in the Middle East.
According to TRTworld.com, US B52 stealth bombers and Tomahawk missiles targeted three Iranian nuclear sites, including the Fordow complex. Despite the deployment of GBU 57 bombs, known for their penetration capabilities, experts doubt the effectiveness of the strikes in reaching Iran's nuclear core. Eslami, a professor specializing in the proliferation of weapons in the Middle East, stated that the attacks were limited to entrance tunnels, leaving the centrifuge cascades undamaged.
Iran claimed to have evacuated the three sites of personnel and materials before the strikes. A Tehran-based journalist confirmed footage showing the removal of nuclear materials from Fordow. While acknowledging the temporary disruption at Natanz and Khondab, the journalist noted that the Bushehr nuclear plant continues to operate.
A former Iranian diplomat emphasized that technology and know-how on enrichment cannot be eradicated through military action. Western experts echo this sentiment, underscoring the resilience of Iranian nuclear expertise. James M. Acton and Doreen Horschig highlighted the enduring knowledge base surrounding uranium enrichment and reactor technology, suggesting that military strikes alone would not significantly hinder Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Yousry Abushady, a former IAEA chief inspector, dismissed the US strikes as a "media stunt." Experts pointed out that the UN charter prohibits military action against peaceful nuclear programs. The IAEA has found no evidence of Iran's nuclear program pursuing atomic weapons. The former Iranian diplomat criticized the US attacks as violations of international law, urging the UN Security Council to intervene.
In response to the strikes, Tehran has vowed to retaliate. Esmaili, an academic, predicts that Iran will target US military bases and naval forces while potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt oil flow. He also suggested that Iran might withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and pursue nuclear weapon development. The extent of Iran's military response remains uncertain, but Esmaili emphasized that Iranians are unlikely to surrender.
The potential for escalation is further complicated by the political landscape in Iran. Esmaili noted that Supreme Leader Khamenei, perceived as relatively moderate, might be replaced by a more hardline leader if he were to be removed from power. This adds another layer of complexity to the unfolding situation.