Washington: When Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi meets with former US President Donald Trump at the White House today, a significant topic of discussion is expected to revolve around the disarming of Iran-affiliated militias in Iraq. This issue is particularly pressing given the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, and the potential impact it may have on regional stability.
According to Deutsche Welle, the paramilitary groups in question, collectively known as the Popular Mobilization Front (PMF), were initially formed in 2014 to combat the extremist group known as the Islamic State. These groups now comprise approximately 240,000 fighters with an annual budget of about $3.5 billion. While some factions within the PMF are considered part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," their involvement in attacks on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Jordan has heightened tensions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the necessity of addressing these militias, stating that regional peace cannot be achieved as long as Iranian proxies continue their activities.
In response to US pressure, which includes designating certain PMF factions as "foreign terrorist organizations" and imposing sanctions, the Iraqi government has pledged to bring all arms under state control by the end of September. Prominent cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has already taken steps by ordering his faction, Saraya al-Salam, to disarm, and other groups like Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Imam Ali have also agreed to transfer weapons and personnel to the state. However, skepticism remains about the effectiveness of these measures, given the complex political landscape in Iraq.
Many PMF groups hold significant political power in Iraq, controlling ministries and influencing the judiciary. Analyst Omar al-Nidawi highlights the difficulty in monitoring disarmament efforts, given the intertwined nature of these militias with the state. While some factions, like Asaib Ahl al-Haq, are shifting focus towards political engagement, others, like Kataib Hezbollah, remain steadfast in their resistance activities.
The possibility of disarming these militias raises questions about Iran's influence in Iraq. Analysts suggest that while some factions may make concessions, they are unlikely to sever ties with Iran completely. The broader regional implications of these developments remain uncertain, with potential repercussions for US interests in the area.
There is cautious optimism that these pledges to disarm might signal a shift towards a less confrontational future. However, concerns linger about the potential normalization of groups involved in past crimes, posing challenges for accountability and justice. As discussions between the US and Iraq continue, the future of Iran-allied militias and their role in regional dynamics remain critical issues to address.