Washington: After a June 14 phone call that focused on the new explosion of fighting in the Middle East, US President Donald Trump said on social media that Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees with him that the war in Israel-Iran should end. In his post about the conversation, Trump added that he told Putin that his war should also end.
According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, this comment seemed to highlight Moscow's hypocrisy. More than three years into an onslaught that has killed thousands of Ukrainian civilians, many of them in nighttime attacks hitting homes, Russia's Foreign Ministry condemned what it described as Israel's unprovoked military strikes on peaceful sleeping cities. This situation, like the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and the Gaza war that ensued, is diverting the attention of the West from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine at a crucial time.
The conflict comes as Trump and Western nations consider imposing new sanctions on Moscow. Kyiv and some European leaders claim that Russia is not interested in peace and is trying to improve its battlefield position. While decisions on sanctions related to the Ukraine war could emerge from the Group of Seven (G7) summit, the Israel-Iran conflict could overshadow these discussions. The Middle East situation could compete with the Ukraine war for Western weapons, money, and resources.
Efforts to weaken Russia's war machine focus on curbing its oil revenues. A rise in oil prices due to the Israel-Iran fighting could setback Kyiv and its supporters. This could add challenges for Ukraine, where Russian forces have advanced slowly with significant human costs, and Kyiv has made few substantial gains since 2023. The Kremlin may hope to benefit from the Middle East violence.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, wrote in Rossiiskaya Gazeta that aside from Iran, Ukraine could suffer the greatest military and political damage. A new war in the Middle East may distract global attention from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and lead to the United States prioritizing military assistance to Israel. Pukhov added that Israeli strikes on Iran could undermine criticism of Russian military actions in Ukraine and that increased oil prices could destroy Ukraine's and its Western allies' hopes for decreased Russian oil revenues.
On the other hand, supplies of Iranian Shahed drones used by Russia against Ukraine could be affected. However, Russia now produces most of these drones domestically and has developed variations from the initial Iranian designs, according to Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia and the Middle East. She noted that the impact on Russia in Ukraine would be modest. Russia analyst Mark Galeotti mentioned on his podcast that while Russia would buy from Iran, it no longer relies on Iran to the same degree.
As Iran and Israel continued to exchange strikes, Trump stated on Truth Social that a deal between Iran and Israel could be easily achieved to end the conflict. This desire might take precedence over his efforts to end Russia's war on Ukraine, which continues despite his claims of being able to resolve it quickly. Trump has expressed frustration with Putin's refusal to change course and its attacks on civilians but has yet to impose new sanctions on Moscow. An unofficial two-week deadline set by Trump to assess Putin's intentions passed, and Middle East violence might delay further actions, particularly if Trump seeks Kremlin assistance in brokering a truce or an agreement on Tehran's nuclear program.
After an earlier phone call with Putin, Trump suggested that Putin could assist in a US push to reach a deal with Tehran to curb Iran's nuclear activities. The Kremlin stated that Putin emphasized Russia's readiness to mediate. Trump told ABC News he would be open to Putin's mediation. The desire for diplomatic influence could impact both Middle East and Ukraine dynamics, potentially leading Putin to be more constructive on Ukraine.