Tel aviv: Yemens Houthi rebels on March 28 fired their first missiles at Israel since the Iran war began, but analysts warn the more consequential threat is not the projectiles aimed at Israeli territory -- it is what the group could do to global energy markets. Hours later, the rebels announced their second launch, describing it as "a barrage of cruise missiles and drones targeting several vital and military sites" in Israel. Details were not immediately available.

According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, a US-designated terrorist organization, the Houthis involvement risks prolonging a war that has already drawn in US forces, Gulf Arab states, and Israel across multiple fronts. Their entry into the conflict, ending nearly a month of restraint since the war began, raised immediate fears of a simultaneous disruption to two of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Iran has already effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz; the Houthis have now signaled they could move against the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which roughly 10 percent of the world's seaborne oil passes.

But analysts say the attacks may have been less about Israel than about Riyadh. Michael Horowitz, an independent defense analyst based in Israel, noted that the Houthi military spokesman laid out specific conditions that would trigger full entry into the war, among them any countries actively participating in the US-Israeli war against Iran. Horowitz suggested that this is an indirect message to the Gulf and particularly Saudi Arabia, warning them against joining the war against Iran, or letting US forces use more of their bases.

The month-long delay in Houthi involvement likely reflected the group's own calculations rather than Iranian direction. The Houthis may have been reluctant to jeopardize ongoing diplomatic efforts with Saudi Arabia that could yield economic incentives, while Israeli strikes last year on civilian and economic targets in Houthi-controlled areas had already worsened conditions on the ground.

Danny Citrinowicz, a security analyst at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, highlighted the broader threat in Iran's economic campaign against the United States. He pointed out that while Houthi strikes against Israel should not be dismissed, the central issue lies in their demonstrated ability to threaten critical energy transit routes at both maritime chokepoints.

Energy markets research firm HFI Research estimated that a Houthi move on the Bab al-Mandab would put an additional 4 million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports at risk. Although it may not be as disruptive as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Suez Canal, the market impact would still be significant.

Citrinowicz warned that the trajectory of the conflict pointed in one direction, with the likelihood of this scenario materializing continuing to grow. "It is increasingly not a question of if, but when," he stated.