Tehran: Following significant developments in the Persian Gulf, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, many international experts and analysts have raised the question of whether the security order of this strategic waterway may no longer be as effective as it once was.
According to Islamic Republic News Agency, to understand the accuracy of this viewpoint, it is essential to address the developments since the Hormuz crisis erupted. These developments have shown that military intervention, even by a major power like the United States, does not resolve the crisis but exacerbates it, leading to international political, economic, commercial, and security turmoil.
Henry Kissinger's assertion that control over the Persian Gulf equates to global dominance, although seemingly exaggerated, is rooted in recent developments that highlight the region's strategic importance. The crisis has demonstrated that the security order can no longer rely solely on a single major power, emphasizing the role of regional actors.
The recent crisis has prompted countries in the region to seek alternative routes for energy exports and trade exchanges, indicating a long-term strategic shift. However, until these plans are realized, the Strait of Hormuz will retain its strategic importance. This situation raises the question of whether the Persian Gulf is transitioning from a superpower-dominated order to a multi-layered, multipolar one.
Iran, with the longest coastline along the Persian Gulf, plays a crucial role in the region's security. Recent developments have underscored Iran's return to the center of the security equation for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, requires stability for its economic development plans and energy exports, making de-escalation and negotiations vital.
Qatar's economic interests are heavily tied to the Strait of Hormuz, as a significant portion of its LNG exports passes through it. The UAE, due to its close relations with Israel, has taken a firm stance toward Iran following recent attacks on ADNOC ships. Bahrain, with strong security ties to the United States, cannot pursue the cautious policies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
These considerations highlight the differing security calculations among Persian Gulf Arab states, despite common economic interests, leading to a lack of integration within the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC). The United States, while no longer solely responsible for regional security, maintains its political, economic, and military interests in the region.
China, by deploying a naval fleet in the Persian Gulf, seeks to increase its influence without replacing the United States, expanding economic and trade relations with Iran and most Persian Gulf states. A strategic triangle comprising Iran, Persian Gulf Arab States, and China may emerge, potentially reshaping the region's security dynamics.
In conclusion, the future of the Persian Gulf is likely to be shaped by a multi-layered order involving regional cooperation, rather than solely by foreign power intervention or regional competition. The role of the United Nations and the Security Council is crucial in maintaining global security, given the historical linkage between the Persian Gulf's security and global stability.
Abdolreza Ghofrani is a former diplomat and international affairs analyst.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of IRNA or the Iranian Government.