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Hamas Fighters’ Future Role Under Scrutiny Amid Gaza Peace Plan

Gaza: Peace is a prerequisite to the ambitious economic development plans that could transform Gaza. Securing that peace, however, requires addressing the future role of Hamas fighters. In a recent RAND essay on the challenges of implementing Phase II of the Gaza Peace Plan, the potential issues surrounding the demobilization of Hamas were highlighted. While the demobilization of Hamas is desirable, it could create new dangers.

According to EMM, there is skepticism regarding whether Hamas veterans could transition from combatants to contributing members of a spiritual and social movement dedicated to Gaza's reconstruction. This skepticism is shared by many and stems from the complexity of the situation, where all options have significant drawbacks. However, some possibilities might be worth exploring as negotiations progress.

One major option is demobilization, yet there is no indication that Hamas will voluntarily pursue this path. Demobilization could be enforced by cutting off financial support, particularly from Qatar, which could reduce the number of active fighters. However, Iran's support remains a challenge to halt. Furthermore, there is a concern that demobilized fighters, left without a livelihood and unable to reintegrate into civilian life, could become security threats through criminal activities.

Another discussed option, indefinite custody, is considered unfeasible. Hamas has not surrendered, and few of its fighters remain imprisoned. Most captured during the conflict have been released. Renewed military operations would be necessary to capture current fighters, which is not a viable solution. The peace plan does mention that fighters who commit to peaceful coexistence and decommission their weapons could receive amnesty. Noncompliance, however, would lead to potential arrest and imprisonment. The International Stabilization Force (ISF) is tasked with disarming and demobilizing Hamas, though it is uncertain if the nations involved are willing to undertake this responsibility.