New Delhi: When Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif embraced Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh last week, the act symbolized a significant new chapter in the relationship between the two nations. This development followed the signing of a “strategic mutual defense agreement” between Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed nation in the Islamic world, and Saudi Arabia, a dominant monarchy in the Gulf region.
According to BBC, a senior Saudi official described the agreement as an “institutionalization of long-standing and deep cooperation.” However, many in India perceive it as a strategic move that could affect regional stability. Former Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal criticized the pact as a “grave misstep,” suggesting it could have serious implications for India’s national security.
India’s government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has taken a cautious stance. A foreign ministry spokesperson stated that they would “study its implications for national security and regional and global stability.” India also expressed hope that its strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia would consider “mutual interests and sensitivities.”
Not all analysts see the situation as alarming. Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, advised against overestimating the risks, noting that Saudi Arabia values balanced ties, with India being its second-largest trading partner. Kugelman suggested that the agreement does not directly threaten India, as Saudi Arabia is unlikely to engage in hostile actions against it.
The pact, however, could reshape regional alliances by embedding Pakistan in the Middle East’s security framework. Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador, warned that the agreement might lead Saudi Arabia to play a role akin to the United States during the Cold War, potentially aiding Pakistan’s military development against India.
Md. Muddassir Quamar from Jawaharlal Nehru University noted that the agreement is more a formalization of a long-standing understanding between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The two nations have a history of defense collaboration, with Pakistan providing military support to Saudi Arabia since the 1960s.
The deal also reflects Saudi Arabia’s shifting security priorities, as Ahmed Aboudouh from Chatham House explained. The agreement signals Saudi Arabia’s intent to diversify its security partnerships amid declining confidence in U.S. protection, with Iran and Israel perceived as threats.
For India, the potential formation of an “Islamic NATO” could complicate its strategic interests in the Gulf region. Experts suggest that the agreement might strengthen Pakistan’s position by leveraging Saudi Arabia’s financial and political support, posing a broader challenge to India.
While the pact does not pose an immediate security threat to India, its diplomatic implications remain significant. The evolving situation will be closely monitored by Delhi, as it navigates the changing geopolitical landscape.