Yerevan: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian recently announced that the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) had entered its implementation phase. Framed as a potential breakthrough after decades of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the project aims to link Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenian territory, while positioning the route as part of the broader Middle Corridor connecting Asia to Europe. But the timing may prove challenging.

According to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, the ongoing US-Israel with Iran war risks undercutting Washington's ability to follow through on the ground. Thomas de Waal of Carnegie Europe told RFE/RL that deploying US personnel near the Iranian border for studies, security, or oversight will be difficult as long as the conflict continues, raising early questions about how quickly the project can move beyond announcements.

De Waal explained that there was significant momentum behind TRIPP initially, with strong American support, a crucial agreement in Washington in January, and JD Vance's visit to the region bolstering bilateral relations. The ambition is to complete the railway largely by the end of Trump's second term in 2028. However, the conflict with Iran presents two main challenges: the danger of deploying Americans near the Iranian border and the difficulty in attracting private investment for a project close to Iran.

De Waal noted that the continuation of the conflict would exacerbate these issues and mentioned recent developments, such as a potential reconciliation between Baku and Moscow and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's visit to Georgia, as factors that could influence the project's trajectory.

Regarding Iran's opposition to TRIPP, De Waal highlighted the potential impact of even minor military actions, such as rocket strikes near Nakhchivan airport, on regional stability. He outlined various scenarios in Iran, including ongoing conflict with the United States and internal unrest, which could heighten concerns about TRIPP.

Discussing Russia's stance on TRIPP, De Waal indicated that Russia is assessing the situation strategically, potentially cooperating with the US if TRIPP succeeds, while offering assurance to the US of their favorable relations with Iran if issues arise.

Addressing concerns about US commitment to TRIPP amidst its focus on Iran, De Waal asserted the project's significance to the Trump administration and the strong American incentive to ensure its success. He also expressed confidence in securing funding for the TRIPP railway from various actors, despite potential challenges with other related projects.

Finally, De Waal commented on Armenia's upcoming parliamentary elections and the West's efforts to counter Russian influence. He expressed confidence in Pashinian's prospects for reelection, despite tensions with Moscow, citing behind-the-scenes support from Western countries and the lack of a strong opposition in Armenia.