Tokyo: When war erupts in the Middle East, the cost is borne by the countries nearest to the conflict, as well as by those not involved. The US and Israel carried out attacks on Iran late last month while negotiations were still in progress. This has led to a sudden and severe energy crisis in Japan, South Korea, and China, especially after Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade.
According to TRTworld.com, the conflict has resulted in an energy crisis more severe than any war game had predicted, testing the global energy order and affecting the Asia-Pacific region the most. In 2024, the majority of oil and gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz was destined for Asia. Japan sources approximately 90 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, with most of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea gets about 70 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, and 95 percent of that passes through Hormuz.
As of March 17, more than two weeks after the start of the blockade, over 150 oil tankers were still stuck in the Gulf. On March 16, the Japanese government began releasing a substantial quantity of strategic oil reserves, amounting to 80 million barrels, as an emergency measure expected to last only about 45 days. The situation is exacerbated by limited alternatives, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only countries with pipelines that could bypass Hormuz, transporting only 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels daily compared to the 20 million barrels that usually pass through the strait.
The economic consequences are escalating, with Brent crude oil prices rising by about 15 percent initially and later climbing to $120 a barrel as the conflict worsened. In the worst-case scenario, prices could reach $150 or more. If oil prices remain between $120 and $130 per barrel, Japan's GDP in 2026 could decrease by 0.6 percent. South Korea has implemented a 100 trillion won program to stabilize the market amid the uncertainty, while China relies on its large oil reserves to mitigate short-term issues.
The war has impacted a global economy already dealing with tariffs, pandemic-related debt, and rising prices. Central banks in Europe and Asia have just begun addressing these issues, and each additional week of disruption complicates recovery efforts. Politically, the crisis has been dramatic in Japan, where PM Sanae Takaichi faces challenges in altering the country's pacifist constitution while addressing international tensions.
The conflict's most significant long-term consequence may be its impact on the Indo-Pacific region's security framework. The US has redeployed THAAD and Patriot missile defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East, raising concerns about military deterrence regarding North Korea and diplomatic relations with China. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung acknowledged the redeployment and its implications for the region's security.
Asia's need for strategic autonomy is highlighted as countries like Trkiye navigate great-power competition while retaining strategic autonomy. Trkiye's multidirectional approach and energy architecture provide a model for Japan and South Korea, which have long relied on deep alignment with the US for security.
The energy crisis underscores the need for diversification and structural reforms. As the global supply chain remains vulnerable, the interdependence of energy security and geopolitical architecture is undeniable. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical waterway, where alliance commitments are renegotiated in real time, making future crises not just possible, but inevitable.