Bab al-mandab: Iran launched waves of missiles at Israel on Monday as Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis carried out their second attack since the start of the US-Israeli war, with the Israeli military saying two drones launched from Yemen were intercepted early on the morning of March 30.
According to France24.com, the Houthis entered the conflict for the first time two days earlier, firing missiles at Israel on Saturday in an escalation that has raised fears they could also move to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, sending oil prices - already up more than 50 percent in a month - even higher. Following the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, Iran has repeatedly threatened to target the Bab al-Mandeb strait in the Gulf of Aden, south of the Red Sea.
"Insecurity in other straits, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, is one of the options" for resisting US threats, an Iranian military source told Tasnim, an Iranian news agency, on March 21. Iran will broaden its retaliatory measures if the United States or Israel were to launch a ground offensive in the region, Tasnim reported. Military retaliation still appears to be on the table, despite US President Donald Trump's calls for peace negotiations while Washington shows no sign of slowing its military build-up in the Middle East.
On Monday, Trump threatened to destroy Iran's main oil export terminal on Kharg Island and other energy infrastructure if Tehran does not agree to a deal. Writing on his Truth Social network, Trump said the US is in "serious discussions" with "a more reasonable regime" in Tehran, but warned: "If for any reason a deal is not shortly reached ... we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet touched."
Faced with what Tehran perceives as a mounting threat, the Islamic Republic is considering an escalation that could include the closure of Bab al-Mandab with the involvement of the Houthis, who have so far been "surprisingly quiet", according to Natasha Lindstaedt, a specialist in authoritarian regimes and non-state actors at the University of Essex. And the Iran-backed group is ideally placed to exert control over the strategic waterway.
The Bab al-Mandab strait plays a key role in global trade as well as in delivering oil and gas to Europe. "In normal times, around 15 percent of global maritime trade by value goes through it," said Jasper Verschuur, a professor of systems engineering and infrastructure security at Delft University in the Netherlands who has studied the cost of disruptions to strategic maritime routes. The strait also plays a central role in moving oil and gas from the Gulf states to Europe. Tankers leave ports in the Persian Gulf, pass through the Strait of Hormuz, cross the Bab al-Mandab and then travel up the Red Sea to reach Europe via the Suez Canal.
Maritime traffic in the Bab al-Mandab strait had already fallen sharply, well before the current escalation in the Middle East. After the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, on Israel and the start of the war in Gaza, the Houthis regularly targeted vessels in the Red Sea. "Before 2023, around 60 to 70 cargo ships passed through every day. Now we're talking about around half the number of ships," said Verschuur. Although the Houthis have been keeping a lower profile for nearly a year, he said most shipping companies had already been forced to make detours, notably through the Cape of Good Hope.
Yemen's Houthi allies would have little difficulty blocking the Bab al-Mandab strait, at least initially. "It is a very narrow strait, less than 30 kilometres wide at one point which makes blocking operations easier," Lindstaedt said. But while disrupting traffic could be relatively simple and quick, keeping the passage closed would be much harder, Pawlak said, and would mean sustaining large-scale denial, and requires continuous effort. Given what is at stake, the military and diplomatic pressure on the Houthis would be enormous. Above all, Lindstaedt said, it remains unclear whether the group still has the financial and military means to sustain a blockade over the long term.